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Prediction of Solar Proton Events Occurrence using CMEs and Flares as Control Events

V Koteswara Rao, K Rama Gopal, R Ramakrishna Reddy, K Sankarasubramanian

Abstract


Prediction of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events is an important research area and helps in enabling space scientists prevent the risks and hazards for the space assets and astronauts. Several methods have been developed for predicting SEP events by means of studying the measured Solar Proton Event (SPE) in conjunction with other remote and in-situ measurements. The supporting measurements include solar soft and hard x-ray data, radio measurements, sunspot numbers, other particle measurements, flares, Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) etc. Two major solar events, the CMEs and the solar flares, are widely believed to lead to solar proton events. In this study, an algorithm is developed that generates control events, using the CME and flare data that can be obtained from the catalogues, which can be used to predict the occurrence of SPE in advance. Also this study shows that the probability of predicting the occurrence of SPEs with respect to the identified control events is better than previously developed methods and the percentage of false alarms is less. The 76 SPEs recorded for the period from 20-02-2002 to 02-01-2016, spanning over a large period of nearly 14 years, are used for the prediction analysis. The methodology of developing the algorithm and the analysis of results of applying the algorithm are presented. The SPE events that could not be predicted using the algorithm are also discussed.

Keywords: Solar proton events, solar flares, coronal mass ejections

Cite this Article

Koteswara Rao V, Rama Gopal K, Ramakrishna Reddy R et al. Prediction of Solar Proton Events Occurrence using CMEs and Flares as Control Events. Research & Reviews: Journal of Space Science & Technology. 2018; 7(3): 26–34p.



Keywords


Solar Proton Events, Solar flares, Coronal Mass Ejections

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References


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.37591/.v7i3.1332

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