Prediction of the Natural Progression of Tuberculosis using Markov Model

Abstract

This study was done to find out the natural development of the tuberculosis (TB) patients. It was an observational study conducted between years 2013 and 2015 at 200 patients with TB. 150 patients entered the regular treatment of dot course and the remaining patients entered the irregular treatment of Dot course. The stage of the patient was noted at the end of the every year and transition matrices were applied to the model and development of between years. To perform statistical analysis, Markov chains and chi-square test were used. In this paper, the study shows that the patients remain stay for a longer period in stage-1 from stage-2 to stage-3, and remain in this stage for longer duration before transiting in to the final stage, means dead simultaneously Dot course treatment patients go to the cured stage.

Keywords: Tuberculosis, Markov model, chi-square test, transition probability matrix