Estimation and Projection of Urban Population of India and China

Abstract

Abstract
The world urban population is expected to be double by 2050, increasing from 3.6 billion in 2011 to 6.3 billion in 2050 (UN, 2011). The urban population of India and China increasing exponentially over period of time the growth of urban population of India is slower than China after 1981 census. The urban population is projected with the help of past data. There are two types of approaches for calculating projections, viz macro and micro approach (Goldstain and Arriaga, 1975). The data collected for this study is from various censuses for India and data for China is collected from website www.tradingeconomics.com. The urban population of India and China is projected from 1991–2051 by using Ratio Method, URGD Method and Logistic Growth Curve Method. The analysis of the study reveals that the projected urban population of India is over estimated by Ratio Method and under estimated by URGD Method and logistic Growth Curve Method. In case of China projected urban population is under estimated for all the methods. And also shows that the URGD Method for China and Logistic Growth Curve Method for India gives reasonable projected of urban population.

Keywords: Urbanization, estimation and projection, UN Methods and Logistic Growth Curve Method