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Statistical Analysis of Spatial Distribution of Tuberculosis in Ethiopia

Getahun Dejene, Geremew Muleta


Tuberculosis is the world’s number one cause of death from an infectious disease. In the year 2018 Ethiopia registered 146,172 cases of TB. Among these, 139,261 were new cases; 46,132 new smear-positive (33.1%); 49,037 new smear-negative (35.2%); 44,092 new extra-pulmonary TB (31.6%). The main objective of this study is to assess the spatial distribution of TB in Ethiopia by using spatial statistical methods. Spatial clustering of Tuberculosis was explored using Moran’s I statistic and the local indicator of spatial autocorrelation. A Poisson regression model using Maximum likelihood Estimation is used to investigate the clustering. A Total of 157,548 Tuberculosis cases were reported in Ethiopia from February 2018 to January 2019 the study period. The highest distribution of Tuberculosis cases was observed in Oromia (38.98%) while the lowest was in Harar (0.62%). The nationwide annual incidence rate of notified Tuberculosis was 167 per 100,000 populations. From the global Moran’s I (-0.575909091) and Geary’s C (2.6437818) test statistics show significant dissimilar clustering (Negative spatial autocorrelation) among neighbouring Regions in Ethiopia. The researcher Conclude that TB was spatially clustered (Dispersed) in Ethiopia. So, the concerned body should give attention to the regions of hotspots to control Tuberculosis.


TB, Spatial Dependence, Poisson Regression Model

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